Los 10.000 del dow fueron cumplidos, se viene Lehman.

Estoy contento por que mi pronostico tirado alla por Febrero mientras me estaba reponiendo fueron cumplidos, en su momento estuve preocupado por que pense que pude haber perdido timing despues de 3 meses sin operar pero como explique el porque se dio y estoy feliz por eso.

Respecto a Lehman mañana puede haber grandes novedades o grandes desiluciones, pienso que tendremos a lehman positiva en el transcurso de estas jornadas pero estoy cauto esperando algo que no depende de mi ni tecnicamente, es solo especulacion de algo que puede suceder o no.
Tambien compre TTY, pienso que mi decision fue arriesgada ya que la IPO de este papel chino se puede caer, pero el lado arriesgado mio me dice que saldra bien, la esperaremos hasta el 19 de Octubre que es la votacion. Pueden leer el informe financiero aqui.


In memorian de mi tio Dante.

La manipulacion del mercado.

Hace un tiempo explique como es que funciona la manipulacion de las pennystocks, tengan en cuenta que las pennystocks son para corto plazo y no largo plazo, es mas tambien hice un post en su momento por que yo no creo en el largo plazo.

El mercado de pennystocks funciona a mentiras, corrupcion, analistas inescrupulosos pagos que tambien explique como detectar este tipo de estafadores.

Quiero que no se dejen enganar, no tiren su dinero, el 90 % de las noticias sobre penny es pura mentira.

Ahora respecto a lehman, llego mi tiempo limite si la noticia no sale este proxima semana comienzo a liquidar mi posicion sea a perdida o ganadora.

MESA espero que llegue a 1 dolar si no llega a ese precio a fines de diciembre la posicion sera totalmente liquidada.

Goldman Sach esta comprando Lehman ?

Si hacemos un scaneo de que esta pasando con Lehman veremos esto

5373 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Relative Value/Macro Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.16740, Amount 6,190,577.00). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5372 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Relative Value/Macro Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.16741, Amount 6,190,577.00). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5371 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Relative Value Credit Strategies Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.16738, Amount 21,085,641.10). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5370 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Relative Value Credit Strategies Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.16739, Amount 21,085,641.10). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5369 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Global Ltd.(Claim No.16742, Amount 3,233,883.41). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5368 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Global Ltd.(Claim No.16743, Amount 3,233,883.41). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5367 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Finance Ltd.(Claim No.23559, Amount 31,421,626.78). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5366 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Finance Ltd.(Claim No.23516, Amount 31,421,626.78). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5365 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Enhanced Credit Bias Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.23520, Amount 2,823,186.52). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5364 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Enhanced Credit Bias Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.23519, Amount 2,823,186.52). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5363 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Select Credit Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.16744, Amount 4,757,960.60). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5362 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Select Credit Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.16745, Amount 4,757,960.60). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5361 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Credit Bias Hub fund Ltd.(Claim No.23517, Amount 4,487,124.58). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5360 10/7/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:III Credit Bias Hub Fund Ltd.(Claim No.23518, Amount 4,487,124.58). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5319 10/1/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:TPG-Axon Partners, LP(Claim No.17601, Amount 821,074.22); TPG-Axon Partners, LP(Claim No.21484, Amount 821,074.22). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5318 10/1/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:TPG-Axon Partners, LP(Claim No.17600, Amount 23,820,228.00); TPG-Axon Partners, LP(Claim No.30099, Amount 24,120,008.63). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5317 10/1/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:TPG-Axon Partners (Offshore), Ltd(Claim No.29889, Amount 46,360,344.56); TPG-Axon Partners (Offshore), Ltd(Claim No.17599, Amount 45,745,423.00). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5302 9/29/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:TPG-Axon Partners, LP(Claim No.17604, Amount 821074.22). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5301 9/29/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:TPG-Axon Partners (Offshore), Ltd(Claim No.17603, Amount 7552687.06). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

5300 9/29/2009 Transfer Agreement FRBP Transfer Agreement 3001 (e) 2 Transferors:TPG-Axon Partners (Offshore), Ltd(Claim No.17602, Amount 7552687.06). To Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC. filed by Michael Friedman on behalf of Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC.(Friedman, Michael)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

4856 8/19/2009 So Ordered Stipulation signed on 8/19/2009 Between Lehman Brothers Special Financing Inc. And Goldman Sachs Bank USA Providing for Limited Relief From The Automatic Stay. (Rodriguez, Maria)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none

4702 8/5/2009 Notice of Presentment of Stipulation, Agreement, and Order Between Lehman Brothers Special Financing Inc. and Goldman Sachs Bank USA Providing for Limited Relief from the Automatic Stay filed by Robert J. Lemons on behalf of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.. with presentment to be held on 8/13/2009 at 12:00 PM at Courtroom 601 (JMP) Objections due by 8/13/2009, (Lemons, Robert)
Debtor: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Related: none
Posted by Troy at 5:29 PM 0 comments
Lehman Judge Says It Can Move Ahead With Suncal Plan
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The judge overseeing Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy case said the former investment bank can move ahead with an effort to spend estate money on a plan to reorganize projects its financed for real estate developer Suncal Cos.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge James Peck in New York today approved Lehman’s request to press its plan for reorganizing SunCal projects that are in bankruptcy protection in Santa Ana, California. SunCal has blamed the insolvency of the projects on Lehman.

Lehman has said it will pay out no more than $15 million to cover subordination claims in the SunCal cases and then bid for the projects using about $2 billion in claims it has tied to secured loans it made to SunCal. Doing so would improve the return for Lehman’s creditors on the loans, the bank said.

SunCal has said Lehman no longer own the loans and so can’t assert secured claims. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Erithe A. Smith in Santa Ana has already agreed with SunCal that Lehman doesn’t own the debt, which it transferred to Fenway Capital. She is weighing whether Lehman has standing as an agent for Fenway to assert the claims. An Oct. 15 hearing is scheduled in the case.

There are other plans being offered to restructure the bankrupt SunCal entities, including one SunCal favors from D.E. Shaw & Co. Lehman will likely amend its plan to bring the projects out of bankruptcy, Lehman lawyer Garrett Fail said.

Estate Money

“We don’t believe there will be any material adverse impact” to Lehman’s creditors from the amendments, Fail said.

Peck said he was concerned the amount of estate money, funds belonging to Lehman’s creditors, could grow substantially as Lehman negotiates revisions to its plan.

“Is this a blank check?” Peck asked, noting he didn’t want a $15 million commitment to turn into a $30 million one.

He agreed to sign off on the proposal after lawyers for Lehman said the committee representing its unsecured creditors will be consulted on any changes and material changes will be posted on Lehman’s court docket as well as SunCal’s.

“Our understanding with the debtor is that amendments will be made with committee approval,” creditors committee lawyer Dennis O’Donnell said.

Lehman filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history in Sept. 2008 with assets of $639 billion.
Posted by Troy at 5:24 PM 0 comments
Current Valuation 7 Oct 2009
% Face value based on closing price on 10/07/2009

LEHNQ - 8M @ $25 2.00% of face on 107% 10-day average volume
LEHKQ - 12M @ $25 2.20% (52-week high) of face on 28% 10-day average volume
LEHLQ - 12M @ $25 2.00% of face on 103% 10-day average volume
LHHMQ - 16M @ $25 2.00% of face on 112% 10-day average volume

Capital Trusts are trading at an average of 2.05% (+/- 0.10%) of face value--highest composite average and smallest STD since I've been tracking them. Compared to the Traditional Preferred Shares, CTs are trading at a whopping 248% premium--a recent high

LEHCQ - 5M $50 0.40% of face on ZERO volume
LEHDQ - 4M @ $50 0.76% of face on 92% 10-day average volume
LEHFQ - 12M @ $25 0.80% of face on 153% 10-day average volume
LEHGQ - 5.2M @ $25 0.24% of face on 2% 10-day average volume
LEHJQ - 66M @ $25 0.73% of face on 50% 10-day average volume
LEHPQ - 4M s@ $1000 0.60% of face on 3% 10-day average volume
LBHGP - 2M s@ $1000 0.50% of face on 58% 10-day average volume

Traditional Preferred Shares trade at an average of 0.59% (+/- 0.21%) of face value.

Negating CQ (which never trades), it appears that LEHPQ is the most undervalued with respect to the other traditional preferred shares. That is assuming that the anomalous trades in LEHGQ normalize and the ask of $0.224 is more indicative of the correct price.

LEHMQ closed down 2.2 at $0.176 on 28% 10-day average volume.

Fuente: Lehman Lotto

Alcoa, Cenx, Trit y BBX

Estas acciones siempre me gustaron y Cenx especialmente cuando la recomende en 5 dolares le di un target de 10 dolares que fue cumplido y luego depuro hasta ayer que exploto.

Particularmente me gusta mucho mas CENX por que es mucho mas volatil en precios que Alcoa y me da ganancias rapidas.

Mi Target para ALCOA de aqui a 1 año es de 30 Dolares, al igual que CenX y Trit.

La que veo mal es BBX que sigue bajando, la estoy siguiendo y esperando el momento de reversion para empezar a entrar.

Aunque no lo crean no tengo ningunos de estos papeles actualmente, posiblemente espero el momentum para entrar en CENX y TRIT en el corto plazo.

Asi mismo estamos a solo 1 semana del fallo de Lehman, mientras tanto seguimos tradeando.



Recuerden el post Lo mejor esta por venir cuando lo dije en un momento dificil del mercado.

ACTUALIZACION: CERRE POSICIONES PERDEDORAS Y AGREGUE TRIT, CENX PARA BUY Y CHIP short

El nuevo octubre Lehman se acerca.

En el 2008 anticipe la caida terrible del Dow Jones, ahora estoy convencido que el 15 de octubre sera el dia Lehman.

Me preguntaras y si no sale?, sino sale mala suerte, por lo menos lo intente, peor es no arriesgarse, prefiero fracasar antes que ser cobarde.

Como me arriesgue a tirar que papeles recomendaba post CRACK, todos ellos subieron el 100 % o mas algunos. Esto es bolsa, el que arriesga y sabe esperar es rico, el que no es pobre y lo sera siempre, nadie se los dice, yo si.

LEHGQ Explotara

Hay solo 5 millones de LEHGQ comparadas con los 689 Millones que hay de las MQ. GQ es bastante iliquida y poco volumen por ahora es dificil de conseguir. Explotara.

Lehman seguira subiendo

Lehmq ira en busca de los 40 centavos, esten atentos puede haber novedades muy pronto, por el momento les dejo este link de reuters.

Las preferidas de Lehman volando.

Como fue anticipado el viernes pasado era la hora de las preferidas de lehman y asi esta sucediendo subiendo hoy mas del 50 %.

La hora de Lehman

Se viene lehman y las preferidas que anteriormente dije que estaban muy baratas, mi target de las preferidas es de $25 dolares, esten atentos que antes de fin de año puede haber novedades, seria la estrella del mercado en 12.000 puntos.

Lehman Brothers rumbo al cielo.

En Setiembre de 2008 pronostique que Lehman ( LEHMQ ) iba a costar mucho mas en 2 años, hoy empezamos a dar un paso enorme hacia la restructuracion final de la Empresa, el Lunes no me extrañaria que habra con un GAP al alza en 0.25 y llegar al $1 en el corto plazo. Estamos ante una gran oportunidad historica y no la debemos desaprovechar.

No existe el inversor de largo Plazo.

Muchos dicen a mi la baja del mercado de ayer no importa yo soy inversor de largo, supongamos que usted compro acciones de Lehman Brothers a USD 4.50 en el año 95 como usted es un inversor de largo plazo usted tenia guardadas hasta el dia de ayer esos papeles ya que en el 95 compro 1000 papeles a USD 4.50 ( USD 4500 ) menos comision y cuando el papel llego a cotizar a 70 dolares usted tenia de esos 1000 papeles ( USD 70000 ) menos comisiones y sin contar dividendos que LEH pagaba. Usted decia no importa es una inversion a largo plazo, mi futuro asegurado y mi jubilacion pero el problema es que hasta el dia de ayer ese inversor permanecio inmovil y sus papeles cotizaban a 0.20 promedio debido a la quiebra por lo que a usted ahora solo le quedaban 200 dolares .

A que voy ? A que el mercado es como las olas y el inversor debe ser un surfista aprovechando las mejores olas para subirse y tambien para bajarse. Por que muchos no entienden esto? Aun no lo se.

Alguien lo sabe?

Lehman Brothers y el Dow Jones hacia donde van?

Reflexiono sobre lo visto hoy que el dow se desplomò ahora hacia donde va el mercado? mi analisis:

Creo que Lehman Brothers serà comprada y en un largo plazo de aproximadamente 2 años recuperara su valor.


Y ahora ?

El dow DEBE y necesita seguir cayendo.


Por que ?:

Por que como todo ciclo debe finalizar y el ciclo bear todavia no finalizò.

Y cuando sucedera eso?

Cuando la economia de Estados Unidos anuncie y sincere la recesion lo que provocara la ultima gran caida del mercado para luego entrar en una meseta en la que se ira recuperando y lograrà llevar el equilibro en la nueva economia que esta naciendo.

Estas seguro ?

Completamente

La proxima crisis cuando?

2012 baby boom